Using the Backtester

What the backtester actually does, how to read the results, and what it cannot tell you.

What the backtester does

The backtester takes a Polymarket wallet address and replays its real past trades as cash flows over the last 90 days. It models:

Entry prices — the actual price the wallet paid when it entered
Exit prices — the actual price it received when it exited (or the market resolution price)
Fees — Polymarket trading fees at the rates that were in effect
Slippage — an estimate of the price impact of each order based on market depth at the time

The result is a simulated P&L curve showing how a copycat strategy — entering and exiting at roughly the same time as the wallet — would have performed.

How to run a backtest

Go to Backtester in the sidebar
Paste a wallet address in the input field, or select one from your saved wallets
Click Run Backtest
Wait a few seconds while trades are fetched and replayed

Reading the results

P&L curve

The chart shows cumulative profit/loss over time. A smooth upward curve is what you want. A curve with wild swings suggests a high-variance strategy that’s harder to copy safely.

Trade log

Below the chart, each trade is listed with entry, exit, size, fee, and outcome. You can sort by any column.

Summary stats

Stat	What it means
Total return	Net profit/loss as % of starting capital
Sharpe ratio	Steadiness of returns — higher is steadier
Max drawdown	Biggest peak-to-trough drop during the period
Win rate	% of trades that closed in profit
Total trades	Number of trades the wallet made
Avg hold time	How long positions were typically held

What the backtester can tell you

How this wallet’s strategy actually behaved over the last 90 days
Whether the returns were smooth or lumpy
Whether the drawdowns were tolerable
Whether the win rate is consistent across different market types

What the backtester cannot tell you

Past performance does not predict future results. The backtester shows history, not a guarantee. Polymarket markets change, edges disappear, and a wallet that was profitable last quarter may not be profitable next quarter.

Specific things to watch out for:

Recency bias — a great 90-day run may end as soon as you copy it
Small sample size — fewer than 20 trades is not enough data to draw strong conclusions
Survivorship — you’re looking at wallets that are still active and on the leaderboard; wallets that burned out are already gone

Use the backtester as a filter, not a guarantee. A bad backtest is a clear red flag. A good backtest is a green light to test in paper mode first.